Why Will Agency Mortgage REITs Get Hit The Most From QE3?

The announcement and the launch of the much-awaited third round of quantitative easing (QE3) by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has had mixed effects on the U.S. mortgage industry. Mortgage REITs are put in a difficult position as the street and investors in general welcomed Fed's new initiative to stimulate the sluggish US economy. Though we believe the interest spreads at agency mortgage REITs will be hurt, mortgage REITs that invest primarily in non-agency REITs will benefit. Mortgage REITs, which have large proportions of adjustable-rate securities in their holdings, will be least hurt by the acceleration in prepayments. Therefore, we recommend long positions in non-agency mortgage REITs. The remaining of the investment thesis aims at discussing the effects of QE3 on agency mortgage REITs (Annaly Capital (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC), mortgage REITs that invest exclusively in adjustable rate securities (CMO), non-agency mortgage REITs (Newcastle Investment (NCT) and PennyMac (PMT)), and mREITs that hold a combination of agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities MFA Financials (MFA) and Invesco Mortgage (IVR).

We believe if the Fed accelerates its bond-buying program, the agency mortgage REITs will take a major hit as far as their net interest margins are concerned. In this scenario, we recommend investors buy mREITs that invest in non-agency mortgage- backed securities. Read more